Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.008837 0.009974 0.011202 0.012629 0.014242 0.016009 0.018094
2025-12-21 0.006784 0.008288 0.010049 0.012265 0.014981 0.018207 0.022335
2025-12-28 0.005960 0.007692 0.009834 0.012682 0.016375 0.021014 0.027301
2026-01-04 0.005315 0.007173 0.009576 0.012919 0.017459 0.023430 0.031912
2026-01-11 0.004846 0.006797 0.009422 0.013217 0.018586 0.025935 0.036810
2026-01-18 0.004341 0.006303 0.009033 0.013122 0.019116 0.027621 0.040677
2026-01-25 0.003949 0.005916 0.008741 0.013109 0.019725 0.029427 0.044830
2026-02-01 0.003564 0.005495 0.008349 0.012895 0.019993 0.030719 0.048290
2026-02-08 0.003305 0.005236 0.008169 0.012971 0.020685 0.032681 0.052918
2026-02-15 0.003038 0.004936 0.007894 0.012864 0.021066 0.034166 0.056887
2026-02-22 0.002884 0.004801 0.007862 0.013136 0.022064 0.036698 0.062765
2026-03-01 0.002613 0.004450 0.007450 0.012739 0.021912 0.037312 0.065437
2026-03-08 0.002404 0.004187 0.007168 0.012547 0.022104 0.038543 0.069331
2026-03-15 0.002187 0.003894 0.006810 0.012192 0.021980 0.039218 0.072298
2026-03-22 0.002118 0.003854 0.006885 0.012606 0.023255 0.042451 0.080193
2026-03-29 0.002027 0.003765 0.006864 0.012841 0.024216 0.045185 0.087385
2026-04-05 0.001952 0.003699 0.006879 0.013138 0.025312 0.048246 0.095460
2026-04-12 0.001829 0.003534 0.006695 0.013043 0.025645 0.049883 0.100869
2026-04-19 0.001728 0.003400 0.006560 0.013030 0.026133 0.051848 0.107093
2026-04-26 0.001611 0.003226 0.006335 0.012818 0.026201 0.052984 0.111703
2026-05-03 0.001536 0.003131 0.006256 0.012893 0.026858 0.055347 0.119078
2026-05-10 0.001447 0.003001 0.006096 0.012788 0.027128 0.056932 0.124914
2026-05-17 0.001404 0.002960 0.006115 0.013057 0.028210 0.060293 0.134917